When the Oscar nominations were announced in January, they were pretty underwhelming, all in all. Seriously, 13 nominations for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button? Even card-carrying David Fincher fans, who'd been looking forward to that movie for years, have said the end result just wasn't that good. It's too long and slow. And many left the theater wondering what, exactly, Button did with his life other than marvel at aging in reverse? Fitzgerald's original short story is far more compelling and, most of all, more succinct.
Slumdog is turning out to be a favorite movie of 2008, and while we're glad to see it collect some accolades, we can't figure out why none of its actors were recognized for their work. Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy did an exceptional job bringing this story to life, but they didn't do it alone. Another favorite movie this year, Gran Torino, was completely snubbed by the Academy. While Clint Eastwood has already received his share of career acclaim, it doesn't dismiss the fact that Gran Torino was one of the year's best.
Finally, where's The Dark Knight love? We're happy to see Heath Ledger get the acclaim, but we don't think a Best Picture or Directing nod should have been so far-fetched. For a movie of any kind, let alone a comic flick, Knight was a terrific achievement that raised the bar for what a superhero movie can be. It was financially successful and loved by critics and fans, alike. Just because a movie isn't a tearjerker or a story about an individual overcoming physical, mental, or personal obstacles, it shouldn't be excluded from contention.
And so, with the above rant out of the way, here are our predictions for the 2009 Oscar race -- who we think will win, and who we think should win among the nominated.
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Who Should Win?
Who Will Win?
 Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler -- At this point, we have to think the Academy is on the same page on this one. The Globe win should also help Rourke along. As long as he can avoid any bar brawls before the ceremony, he's a lock.
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Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Who Should Win?
Who Will Win?
| Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight -- Like Rourke, Ledger should be a lock in this category. He nailed the part and, well, sadly it will be his only chance for an Oscar. The Academy will be the subject of much scorn should they go a different direction on this one. |
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Who Should Win?
| Angelina Jolie for Changeling -- For an actress who generally seems to play variations of her actual self, this performance made us forget we were watching the super-celeb gossip-darling. |
Who Will Win?
| Kate Winslet for The Reader -- Winslet's double win at the Golden Globes should offer some added attention for this perennial nominee. She's smart, talented, likable, and classy -- the perfect Oscar combo. |
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Who Should Win?
| Viola Davis for Doubt -- Davis' intense, focused performance may well be the year's most memorable supporting role. |
Who Will Win?
Best Animated Feature Film
Who Should Win?
Who Will Win?
| Wall-E -- If the Academy even seriously considers Bolt! or Kung Fu Panda as competition for Wall-E, its members are even more out of touch than we thought. |
Achievement in Directing
Who Should Win?
| Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire -- Boyle is an underrated director who's been making quality, original flicks for years. Slumdog is a terrific achievement and the best film of 2008. |
Who Will Win?
Adapted Screenplay
Who Should Win?
| Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire -- Weaving together this complicated tapestry is no small achievement. Beaufoy's inventive script is the perfect mix of drama, comedy, action, and just about everything else. |
Who Will Win?
| Eric Roth for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button -- Although Roth's script shares almost nothing in common with Fitzgerald's short story besides the reverse-aging concept and character names, turning this 52-page work into a three-hour movie will likely win him an Oscar alongside Fincher and the film, itself. |
Original Screenplay
Who Should Win?
 
| Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon for Wall-E -- Although Pixar has owned the animated category for years now, it's about time the group received some recognition for its terrific storylines, which are the primary element that set its work apart from all the other humdrum animated features. |
Who Will Win?
| Dustin Lance Black for Milk -- You've gotta give this movie something, and Sean Penn will probably be overshadowed this year by Rourke. Black's script is smart and generally tight, easily the second-best screenplay nominated. |
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Who Should Win?
| Slumdog Millionaire -- A few months ago, we thought Danny Boyle's likable sleeper was a lock to take home all the big awards, but we have less faith as the big day draws near. We're rooting for Oscar to do the right thing. |
Who Will Win?